This Modern Age

Posts Tagged ‘Tim Carney

Bastille Day: Outsourced French Bashing (a day late)

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I know, I know… There hasn’t been anything new here for days! 

Thankfully, my faithful commenters have kept lively – go take sides before I do… (I haven’t even had time to read and respond to comments). 

I’m also crushed that I missed blogging on Bastille Day.  For some great French bashing… err, I mean historical commentary, enjoy reading Jonah Goldberg on Bastille Day specifically and the French in general:

 

 

 

  1. Adhering to Al Bundy’s immortal fatwah, ‘It is good to hate the French.‘”
  2. The French Revolution was a disgusting affair of tyrannical ego, greed and power-lust, made all the worse because it took a good idea and corrupted it, like making a BMW into a low-rider.
  3. “Top Ten Reasons to Hate the French.”
  4. “Nothing did more to grant legitimacy to the idea that modern and enlightened thinking could excuse killing, razing, burning, torturing, and social leveling for utopian or “progressive” ends than the French Revolution.”
  5. “Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, all admired the French Revolution and found within it precedents for their own contributions to world history (though most of them found the American Revolution utterly useless).”

Until I have more time on Wednesday night or Thursday…

PS – Oh, and if you are wondering about Tim Carney and/or St. John’s College (I know you’re out there), feel free to contact me – I’ll give you the low down.

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Written by thismodernage

July 16, 2008 at 12:19 am

Reading Presidential Polling Data

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Over the next 130 something days we are going to get a lot of polling data and analysis.  But it all needs to be kept in perspective.

My good friend, Tim Carney offered the greatest advice on polling data four years ago.  “Pollsters always ask, ‘If the election were held today…’.  The truth is, if the election were held today, no one would show up.   Everyone thinks it’s in November.” 

Written by thismodernage

June 23, 2008 at 6:53 pm

Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268

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An UPDATE of the Electoral College Outlook Can Be Found In This Link.

The country can argue about politics and theory all it wants, but eventually it comes down to solid, old fashioned arithmetic.  The problem that the Democratic Party is facing – and would have also faced with Hillary as the nominee – is, what States can they win that Gore and Kerry could not carry in 2000 and 2004?

Tim Carney is a long time friend of mine and one of the best political forecasters in Washington D.C. – he’s nailed all of the recent elections to the wall.  In a recent Evans-Novak Political Report Tim predicts the Electoral College going to McCain over Obama by 270 to 268.  Granted, that is a razor thin margin, but it seems to represent the current political climate. 

Carney sums up the Presidential race:

The electoral map looks nearly identical to 2004, with Iowa and Colorado swinging into the Democratic camp. Beneath the surface, however, we see Michigan and Pennsylvania becoming more competitive for Republicans.

The election will hinge on two regions: Lake Erie and the Mountain West. An Obama win in New Mexico or Nevada would be enough to tip the scales, but a McCain win in Pennsylvania could put the race out of reach. In the end, as always, it comes down to Ohio, where Obama’s weakness among rural whites could send McCain to the White House.

 

Written by thismodernage

June 14, 2008 at 7:27 pm