This Modern Age

Posts Tagged ‘Rasmussen

Electoral College Outlook: Evidence of Obama Slipping

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A quick update on the Electoral College Outlook. 

In my last post on the Electoral College Outlook (Electoral College Outlook: Obama 273 – McCain 265, but quickly shifting), we conceded that, as things are today, Barack Obama would likely be the next President of the United States.

However, even since Friday, the shift is occurring more quickly than we anticipated. 

The most troubling news to the Obama campaign this weekend has to be the polls coming out of Minnesota.  Albeit close, Democrats won Minnesota’s 10 Electoral College votes in 2000 and 2004.  But a state poll conducted by the Star Tribune of 1,106 Likely Voters from 9/10 – 9/12 has the race a tie 45%.  At the same time, a SurveyUSA poll of 734 Likely Voters has cut Barack Obama’s lead to 49% to 47%.  Prior to these polls, the most recent poll of Minnesota was executed by CNN/Time and gave Obama a 12 point advantage.  With two new polls in, that 12 point lead seems to have evaporated. 

One point is that the McCain campaign could be experiencing a strength in Minnesota similar to Obama’s in Colorado.  The converage of the Republicans being in Minnesota for their convention could actually help swing the state for them. 

If Minnesota shifted to McCain, that would make him the next President of the United States.

Next ‘If’ – If Minnesota is not a state specific issue, but is instead more a part of a larger trend, then Obama is in a lot of trouble.  There are several reasons this could be a part of a larger trend: 1) We are seeing similar shifts in Washington and New Mexico; 2) The latest Rasumussen poll showed McCain breaking through the 50% barrier for the first time. 

Switching each of those states from Obama to McCain would shift the Electoral College Outlook: McCain 291, Obama 247.

Written by thismodernage

September 15, 2008 at 12:00 am

Can Obama Win? Quick Thoughts on Current Polling

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To start – My heart and prayers go out to Robert Novak.  He is a strong man and has been a great patriot.  I am confident that he has courage to face his current trial.

The screaming headline on Drudge recently was Obama’s new growing lead.  Really?  The referenced poll was Gallup with Obama over McCain 48/40.  But there are two obvious flaws with the data:

  1. Gallop polled registered voters.  The most accurate polls are of likely voters, ‘registered voter’ polls always trend favoring the Democrat.
  2. Gallop polled over July 25-27.  Weekend polls also traditionally favor Democrats (care to guess why?).

So, the media got the news they wanted – Obama’s big lead is starting to show. 

USA Today/Gallup, also a weekend poll, shows McCain over Obama 49/45.

Rasmussen has Obama over McCain 45/42.

So it’s a horse race.  After everything positive for Obamahas occurred and McCain can’t find any real traction with conservatives, Obama still doesn’t have this wrapped up in a nice little package. 

As Robert Novak points out in his most recent column, in the summer:

  • Carter had a 33 point lead over Ford, only to finish with razor thin margins.
  • Dukakis held a 17 point lead over George H.W. Bush and lost.
  • Gore and Kerry had leads on George W. Bush as well and both lost.

So why is McCain so close still?  Novak offers up the data point that 10%-15% of the white vote is still undecided.  Fair enough – it might be very difficult for Obama to close that one.

And we still have a long way to go – what about when everyone starts talking about the Induced Infant Liability Act?