This Modern Age

Posts Tagged ‘Evans-Novak

Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268

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An UPDATE of the Electoral College Outlook Can Be Found In This Link.

The country can argue about politics and theory all it wants, but eventually it comes down to solid, old fashioned arithmetic.  The problem that the Democratic Party is facing – and would have also faced with Hillary as the nominee – is, what States can they win that Gore and Kerry could not carry in 2000 and 2004?

Tim Carney is a long time friend of mine and one of the best political forecasters in Washington D.C. – he’s nailed all of the recent elections to the wall.  In a recent Evans-Novak Political Report Tim predicts the Electoral College going to McCain over Obama by 270 to 268.  Granted, that is a razor thin margin, but it seems to represent the current political climate. 

Carney sums up the Presidential race:

The electoral map looks nearly identical to 2004, with Iowa and Colorado swinging into the Democratic camp. Beneath the surface, however, we see Michigan and Pennsylvania becoming more competitive for Republicans.

The election will hinge on two regions: Lake Erie and the Mountain West. An Obama win in New Mexico or Nevada would be enough to tip the scales, but a McCain win in Pennsylvania could put the race out of reach. In the end, as always, it comes down to Ohio, where Obama’s weakness among rural whites could send McCain to the White House.

 

Written by thismodernage

June 14, 2008 at 7:27 pm